Track record

Blog trading record and linked directory

Trades were recorded between March 2012 and August 2016:

Total winning trades = 20

Total %age points gained = 149.3%

Total losing trades = 10

Total %age points lost = 48.9%

Gains : Losses = 3.05 : 1

Here is a full trading record and linked directory of every post made since March 2012.

Highlights

Russell 2000 Index: Identified a low in February 2016 from RSI and breadth divergences

• Bullish divergences on 14 day RSI and 50 day moving average breadth led to a 10.2% rally in the following three weeks

Consumer Discretionary ETF: Identified the November 2015 peak from a large breadth divergence

• Bearish divergence led to a 15.9% drop into the February 2016 low

Apple: Identified top from weekly RSI divergence

• Price and relative RSI divergences shown in September 2012
• Entry criteria defined, short position entered at $667.10
• Position closed in stages for a 10.7% profit

Yen: Identified weakness. Found Japanese pairs to benefit

• Moving average crossover method highlights possibility of Yen weakness, then Bollinger Band method identifies the timing
• Long exporter – short domestic Japanese stock pairs identified using Bollinger Band breakout method
• Kubota (KUB) v Nippon Telegraph & Telephone (NTT) gains 20.0% over seven weeks

US long bonds: Identified yield low from weekly RSI divergence

• Showed divergence forming in May 2012, updated in June 2012
• Showed progress of RSI divergence ideas in February 2013
• Yield rallied from 2.47% in July 2012 to 3.75% as of August 2013. T Bond ETF down 20.3%

Gold: Stock pairs, long term relative weakness, then a tradable low

• Identified Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) to outperform sector from RSI divergence. Pair trade gained 25.3%.
• Identified move to long term underperformance for gold stocks from moving average crossover.
• Used breadth to show gold stocks not oversold in their downtrend
• Identified bullish weekly RSI divergence for gold stock index. Trade gained 15.2%

UK stock rotations: Long term moving average crossovers

• British American Tobacco (BATS or BTI) develops negative crossover on price and against other UK stocks. Show bullish RSI divergence to identify the end of underperformance

US stock rotations: Long term moving average crossovers

• Interactive Corp (IACI) moves to underperformance. Pair shows a 24.8% gain
• Washington Post (WPO) moves to outperformance. Pair shows a 18.8% gain
• Wal-Mart (WMT) identified as meeting RSI divergence criteria versus NASDAQ 100. Trade opened and shows a gain.

Performance ranking (PR) divergence:

• Identify AT&T as ending its underperformance of the Telecom ETF. Trade gains 8.4%, removed on daily RSI divergence and only marginally exceeded

US sector rotations: Long term moving average crossovers

• Identify potential for underperformance of restaurants sector, then identify start and short term end of underperformance for gain of 4.5%. Followed up seven months later
• Identify potential for end of outperformance of the broad consumer discretionary sector, updated 22 weeks later.