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US Dollar has further to go in the long term

January 5, 2015

The US Dollar has rallied strongly over the last few months but the Dollar Index now has bearish divergence on its 14 week RSI.

DXY WEEKLY 050115
We can expect a consolidation of this advance to begin soon. Long term though, the US Dollar may have made an important low. There have been some long term moving average crossovers for the US Dollar against some currencies.

US Dollar vs. Swiss Franc

USDCHF WEEKLY 050115

  • The 60 and 130 week moving averages last crossed in July 2002 but there has just been a bullish crossover
  • There is plenty of upside in the long term back to the 2002 level
  • Price will likely pull back into the moving averages before resuming the advance

US Dollar vs. Singapore Dollar

USDSGD WEEKLY 050115

  • The 60 and 130 week moving averages last crossed in May 2003 but there has just been a bullish crossover
  • Just as with the Swiss Franc, there is plenty of long term upside but price will likely pull back into the moving averages before resuming the advance

 

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