Plans for the rest of 2012 and update on ongoing ideas

23 July

I’ve now got some good examples on this blog of the various trade ideas described in my methods section. Over the next few months I will:

• Finish off setting out what I can do with FIRE, my new breadth software, showing you what I can provide as a customisable breadth product
• Have a break in early August
• Start researching hedge funds and institutions to approach

This will mean less time on finding and showing examples of my trade types but I have done that now. I will keep the blog up to date in terms of monitoring trade ideas previously shown. Below is this week’s update.

Allergan (AGN) v Cigna (CI)

This was set out two weeks ago. The ratio had pulled back a bit too far for a Bollinger Band breakout, which ideally has brief, shallow pullbacks as the breakout is maintained. I was looking to buy a reassertion but none has occurred. Allergan has been weak and against the S&P 500 Index, breaking down from a Bollinger Band contraction, so it now not a candidate for the long side of a pair. Abandon this trade idea.

Allergan (AGN) v S&P 500 Index

iShares Consumer Goods (IYK) v iShares Malaysia (EWM)

This continues to consolidate within its Bollinger Bands. Watch for a breakout.

Simon Property Group (SPG) v iShares Real Estate (IYR)

This has traded sideways over the last few weeks but I continue to watch for a breakdown as described on 09 July.

US Dollar vs Japanese Yen

An end of week close above 80.44 was set as the level at which a long term moving average crossover would look more likely. Over the last few weeks, price has drifted slightly lower, This is just one to keep monitoring.